Well, the idea that the Cubs might try to convince Carlos Correa to accept a seven-year offer doesn’t seem so strange now, does it? Following a report from Jon Heyman that the Astros have “stepped up efforts” to keep Correa in the fold, Héctor Gómez tweeted that talks between the two sides “are focused on whether the possible agreement would be for one year.”
Hearing the Astros/Correa talks are focused on whether the possible agreement would be for one year, or, failing that, if it would be a multi-year deal in the range of 5-10 years. https://t.co/ybQ0H1aEo6
— Héctor Gómez (@hgomez27) March 14, 2022
Wait, what?! Why would a player who’s hitting the market ahead of his age-27 season accept a one-year deal and risk the possibility of jeopardizing the next nine years and potentially another $300 million? Part of it is the idea of locking in $45 million AAV or so by opening his services up to more than two teams. With the Yankees out of the picture, only the Cubs and Astros remain as teams that have been heavily tied to the shortstop.
After banking that record-setting deal, Correa would re-enter the market at just 28 years old and could still command a similar contract to what he’s been expected to land. That would be great for him and for his agent, Scott Boras, who only began representing the superstar in January after a split with William Morris Endeavor. That’s significant because it came during the lockout and after Correa had already received multiyear offers from the Astros and Tigers.
As such, his old agency would apparently still be in line to capture a majority of the commission on whatever deal he ends up signing. That seems really strange, but I guess that’s how things work for baseball agents.
As agents have noted: Given the offers Carlos Correa got before the lockout, his previous agency would be in position to claim a majority of whatever he gets in a multi-year deal. If Correa signs for for one year now, new agent Scott Boras gets all $ of a new deal next winter.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) March 14, 2022
Olney went on to note that there’s a sense in the industry that Correa could do a deal of around six years with the Astros that features an opt-out after the first year. That would give him the benefit of a high guaranteed AAV while also allowing him to test the market again if he performs. Next year’s shortstop class isn’t exactly light on talent, though, with Tim Anderson, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, and possibly Xander Bogaerts (opt-out) hitting the market.
A shorter deal no doubt favors the Astros because there’s no transition for Correa either professionally or personally, and the team is still built to compete. If he prefers to establish something new with a team that would more or less be his alone to anchor — no offense to Willson Contreras, whose future is still very much in flux — the Cubs might be able to get creative with an opt-out deal.
All things considered, it’s feeling more like a return engagement with the Astros is the greatest possibility.