Quantifying Hope: What Are Cubs’ Playoff Odds?

The defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs face Dusty Baker’s Washington Nationals starting Friday. Washington has the fourth-best chance at winning the World Series, according to FanGraphs. But first, the team with the Walgreens logo on their caps will have to beat a team clad in World Series rings.

FanGraphs gives the Cubs a 48 percent chance at beating the Nationals, which is more or less a flip of the coin. Further, the computers think the Cubs have a 25 percent chance at winning the NLCS next and an 11 percent shot at repeating as world champs.

Cleveland is the most likely World Series winner after tearing up the second half. However, the Indians aren’t the team with the best offense since the break. That mark belongs to the Cubs, who own a stellar .347 wOBA, six points better than the team they beat in last year’s Fall Classic. No one has Cleveland’s pitching, though, as they put up a combined 3.03 FIP in the second half, compared to the Cubs’ 4.16 mark.

See below for a color-coded guide to the odds of all eight playoff teams.